Source: Farm Progress
The USDA’s September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report shows the U.S. hog inventory at 74.5 million, down 1% from September 2024 but up 1% from June. Of these, 68.5 million are market hogs and 5.93 million are breeding animals. Economist Lee Schulz of Ever.Ag expects 2025 pork production to fall 0.8% year over year, with 2026 forecasts also likely to be reduced. Despite a smaller herd, productivity remains strong as pigs saved per litter rose 0.9%, continuing a record-breaking trend.
Schulz forecasts hog prices to rise 5–10% in late 2025, potentially reaching levels near 2022 highs. Production costs remain high at about $83 per carcass hundredweight, still 30% above 2020 costs. Profit margins for producers are projected at $20–$25 per head for 2025, reflecting modest recovery after major 2023–24 losses. Schulz describes this as a “financial healing phase,” anticipating stronger profits and stability in the hog industry by late 2026.
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