Source: Rabobank
Global beef production is forecast to decline by 0.8% in 2025, marking the first worldwide contraction in five years. New Zealand is expected to see the largest percentage decrease at 4.7%, while the United States will experience the largest volume drop, nearly 500,000 metric tons, or 4%. Production is also projected to fall in Canada (down 3.9%) and the EU27+UK (down 3%), reflecting tightening cattle supplies across major producing regions.
The downturn is anticipated to continue into 2026, with an additional 3.1% decline expected. Cattle prices in the Northern Hemisphere remain elevated relative to those in the Southern Hemisphere, where prices have recently risen as producers supply growing Northern market demand. The feature analysis highlights Mexico’s cattle and beef sector, which enters 2026 at a transitional stage after two years of herd contraction. Although supplies are beginning to stabilize, recovery is uneven due to screwworm-related border restrictions, shifting trade flows, and volatile domestic economics.
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